Probabilistic Techno-Economic Analysis

Probabilistic Techno-Economic Analysis of Energy and Environmental Systems

This body of work focuses on developing and applying probabilistic methods to evaluate the performance, costs, and environmental impacts of advanced energy and environmental control technologies. A key contribution was the introduction of a robust methodology for modeling and evaluating technologies under uncertainty, particularly for integrated gasification combined-cycle (IGCC) systems and acid rain control technologies. This research moved beyond traditional deterministic models by incorporating variability and uncertainty, enabling more comprehensive and realistic assessments of new technologies and informing policy decisions regarding cost-effective emission controls and coal utilization.

Illustrative papers:

  1. Rubin, E.S., J.S. Salmento, and H.C. Frey, “Cost-Effective Emission Controls for Coal-Fired Power Plants,” Chemical Engineering Communications, 74:155-167 (1988).
  2. Frey, H.C., and E.S. Rubin, “Probabilistic Evaluation of Advanced SO2/NOxControl Technology,” Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association, 41(12):1585-1593 (December 1991).
  3. Frey, H.C., and E.S. Rubin, “Evaluation Method for Advanced Acid Rain Compliance Technology,” Journal of Energy Engineering, 118(1):38-55 (April 1992).
  4. Frey, H.C., and E.S. Rubin, “Evaluation of Advanced Coal Gasification Combined-Cycle Systems Under Uncertainty,” Industrial and Engineering Chemistry Research, 31(5):1299-1307 (May 1992).
  5. Diwekar, U.M., H.C. Frey, and E.S. Rubin, “Synthesizing Optimal Flowsheets: Applications to IGCC System Environmental Control,” Industrial and Engineering Chemistry Research, 31(8):1927-1936 (August 1992).
  6. Frey, H.C., and E.S. Rubin, “Integration of Coal Utilization and Environmental Control in Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle Systems,” Environmental Science and Technology, 26(10):1982-1990 (October 1992).
  7. Frey, H.C., E.S. Rubin, and U.M. Diwekar, “Modeling Uncertainties in Advanced Technologies: Application to a Coal Gasification System with Hot Gas Cleanup,” Energy 19(4):449-463 (1994).
  8. Shih, J.S., and H.C. Frey, “Coal Blending Optimization Under Uncertainty,” European Journal of Operations Research, 83(3):452-465 (1995).
  9. Frey, H.C., and D.S. Rhodes, “Characterizing, Simulating, and Analyzing Variability and Uncertainty: An Illustration of Methods Using an Air Toxics Emissions Example,” Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: an International Journal, 2(4):762-797 (December 1996).
  10. Diwekar, U.M., E.S. Rubin, and H.C. Frey, “Optimal Design of Advanced Power Systems Under Uncertainty,” Energy Conversion and Management, 38(15):1725-1735 (1997).
  11. Rubin, E.S., J.R. Kalagnanam, H.C. Frey, and M.B. Berkenpas, “Integrated Environmental Control Concepts for Coal-Fired Power Plants,” Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association, 47(11):1180-1188 (November 1997).
  12. Agarwal, P., and H.C. Frey, “Modeling and Evaluation of the Externally Fired Combined Cycle Using ASPEN,” Journal of Energy Engineering, 123(3):69-87 (December 1997).
  13. Frey, H.C., and Z. Iwanski, “Probabilistic Methodology for Risk Assessment of New Energy Technologies and Application to Gasification Repowering for an Oil Refinery in Poland,” Energy Conversion and Management, 39 (16/18):267-274 (1998). [special issue:  Florence World Energy Research Symposium (FLOWERS ’97)].
  14. Chen, J., and H.C. Frey, “Optimization Under Variability and Uncertainty: A Case Study for NOx Emissions Control for a Gasification System,” Environmental Science and Technology, 38(24):6741-6747 (2004).
  15. Frey, H.C., and Y. Zhu, “Improved System Integration for Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Systems,” Environmental Science and Technology, 40(5):1693-1699 (March 2006).
  16. Zhu, Y., and H.C. Frey, “Uncertainty Analysis of Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) Systems Based on Frame 7H versus 7F Gas Turbines,” Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, 56(12):1649-1661 (Dec 2006).
  17. Zhu, Y., and H.C. Frey, “Simplified Performance Model of Gas Turbine Combined Cycle Systems,” ASCE Journal of Energy Engineering, 133(2):82-90 (June 2007).